Erap Estrada will return to Malacañang on July 1. This was the bold prediction of Tagbilaran Mayor Dan Lim as the race for Pres. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's successor enters its final stretch. “The pieces are beginning to fall into place in favor of Erap,” the mayor revealed in a call over his mobile phone. He revealed that Estrada was the only presidential candidate invited by El Shaddai founder Mike Velarde to attend the group's Easter event Sunday dawn. The mayor was expected to be with a select group of Estrada insiders who will witness the religious gathering. Fast shaping up as a kingmaker given his commanding grip in Tagbilaran, the mayor's endorsement is critical not only for Vice Gov. Julius Caesar Herrera in the gubernatorial derby but especially for Councilor Oscar Glovasa in the first district race. The mayor is also an avid campaigner for national candidates with Estrada on top of the list followed by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay. Lim recalled that Velarde was once reported to have brokered the offer of Sen. Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party (NP) for Erap to withdraw from the race. Since the time the offer was allegedly made, Villar had slipped at least six percentage points while Erap rose by four points. With Erap now just five percentage points behind Villar, Lim said the momentum has switched to the former president.   “There is no other way to read the (El Shaddai) invitation except to see it as an admission that the Erap is now within striking distance,” the mayor added. The El Shaddai claims to have 3 million members and tilted the balance for Pres. Arroyo along with the Iglesia ni Cristo in 2004. Lim, a loyal political ally of Estrada, had maintained that while everybody was thinking that the fight would narrow down between Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and Villar, Erap would be making a strong surge in the homestretch. He noted that while Aquino was virtually alone on top for a long time, he failed to take advantage of his lead. Villar on the other hand has been hard hit by allegations that he is the secret candidate of Pres. Arroyo. Although perceived as the wealthiest candidate of the present crop of candidates, Villar still has not released the funding requirements to his local candidates. This has led to fears that Villar will no longer make good his promises for logistical support now that his ratings are dropping. If Erap succeeds to even up if not overtake Villar, there is no denying the momentum in favor of the former movie actor.

Lim insists that unlike the other candidates who rely on organization and funding requirements to project strength, Erap knows the masa votes will be his.  Political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan recalled that Erap received a total of 10.9 million votes in 1998. This was the very reason he felt confident overtaking his opponents come election time. Lim believes the disintegration of the Lakas-Kampi will pose a problem for Villar. “If he accepts the defectors into the NP, it will bolster allegations that he is GMA's secret candidate. If he won't, they will join his rivals. Either way, it is unfavorable to him,” the mayor added. Lim has repeatedly argued that the presidency is a matter of destiny. “If you recall, Erap was ousted, imprisoned, tried, convicted and pardoned. This was enough to finish the political career of any other politician,” he pointed out.  Instead, Erap had a constant support base of 12% that did not desert him at the lowest point of his political existence. While Villar initially captured the imagination of the people, Gatmaitan said the death of Cory Aquino changed all that. Villar's popularity plummeted and in his place was an unlikely successor. Gatmaitan said that Villar has not made a dent in Noynoy Aquino's lead. “Financial backers are pragmatists, they will not stay for long unless something dramatic happens in the coming weeks,” he stressed. Gatmaitan also noted that Estrada's support hovers around 20 percent which he credits largely to the masa votes. “There is always hesitancy for this sector to express their sentiments at the early stage. They are for the most part suspicious and would hide their preferences until they feel ‘safe' to express them,” he added. Lim said that Estrada's staying power in the midst of the combined efforts to oust him and destroy him are broad hints that he might yet mock the odds and return to Malacañang. “As far as the masa is concerned, no one else comes close to Erap,” he concluded.